Nvidia now has a two-year lead over its competition in autonomous driving

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, at a press conference before the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, stood on stage and declared the company’s dominance in the growing autonomous-driving market.

With a flurry of new partner announcements with key players including Volkswagen and Uber, along with details on upcoming hardware and platform changes that enable customers to integrate those products, Nvidia












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 appears to be operating at the height of its powers.

With all of its progress, Nvidia believes it has a two-year lead over any competition in autonomous-driving and artificial-intelligence platforms. Though a bold statement for any technology company to make in an era of rapid advancement in software and silicon, this confidence stems from Nvidia’s big investments in hardware, software and partnerships.

Also from CES: Intel and AMD team up to slow Nvidia’s gains

The engineering advantage that Nvidia enjoys started with its experience in graphics and gaming chips, but now spans into autonomous machine specific products like Drive Xavier. This new processor embeds an impressive array of hardware, including high-performance graphics, eight custom processor cores, image and video processors, networking, a deep learning accelerator and a programmable vision accelerator. All of this adds up to one of the most complex combinations of machine-learning capability ever announced, requiring 8,000 engineering years and $2 billion to develop.

There is no shortage of companies that are attempting to gain traction in autonomous driving. Intel












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 has made noise for years, and continues to do so with a shifting focus on compute, security and connectivity. It has purchased several technology providers to accelerate its development, though that hasn’t paid off big. Qualcomm












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 and Arm Holdings have been engaged in the self-driving vehicle space for longer, but the compute capability provided by their mobile-first processors falls well behind Nvidia’s.

Advanced Micro Devices












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 announced its intent to enter the autonomous-driving space at CES this week. It has the graphics processor to enable a competitive solution, but it has a steep hill to climb because of its late entry.

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 CEO Elon Musk confirmed late last year that it was developing its own artificial-intelligence processor for its cars, an interesting direction considering Tesla currently integrates Nvidia hardware for its Autopilot features.

There is surgical precision associated with Nvidia’s proclamation of a two-year lead and the extreme cost of developing a chip capable of providing this feature set. Of course, Nvidia wants to enhance its public profile and bring in new customers from all areas of the automotive ecosystem. That includes car manufacturers but also service providers (like Uber, trucking and shipping) and vehicle-system providers like ZF.

Maintaining the current customer base is also a key driver. Tesla, in particular, is of concern as it was the flagship partner that helped put Nvidia on the map as the leader in autonomous driving and assistance services. If Tesla decides it is better off moving to its own platform, either because of technological advantages or cost, it could have a waterfall effect.

Declaring the cost of keeping up with Nvidia is also a tactic that can dissuade other technology companies from attempting to enter the race at all. Boards of directors may question the direction of investment if they understand the high price and complexity of trying to compete with an entrenched player. The fewer competitors that Nvidia needs to face, the better its roadmap and outlook appear.

There are clearly risks to Nvidia’s position in autonomous driving and the entirety of the machine-learning space. New technology advancements could commoditize the artificial-intelligence requirements for computing capability, and we have seen Nvidia adapt and pivot already with the integration of Tensor Cores in its most recent architecture. For now, Nvidia appears confident in its ability to sustain this dominance, and the market apparently agrees.

Ryan Shrout is the founder and lead analyst at Shrout Research, and the owner of PC Perspective. Follow him on Twitter @ryanshrout.





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